Incorporating fossils into the joint inference of phylogeny and biogeography of the tree fern order Cyatheales.

Present-day geographic and phylogenetic patterns often reflect the geological and climatic history of the planet. Neontological distribution data are often sufficient to unravel a lineage's biogeographic history, yet ancestral range inferences can be at odds with fossil evidence. Here, I use the fossilized birth-death process and the dispersal-extinction cladogenesis model to jointly infer the dated phylogeny and range evolution of the tree fern order Cyatheales. I use data for 101 fossil and 442 extant tree ferns to reconstruct the biogeographic history of the group over the last 220 million years. Fossil-aware reconstructions evince a prolonged occupancy of Laurasia over the Triassic-Cretaceous by Cyathealean tree ferns, which is evident in the fossil record but hidden from analyses relying on neontological data alone. Nonetheless, fossil-aware reconstructions are affected by uncertainty in fossils' phylogenetic placement, taphonomic biases, and specimen sampling and are sensitive to interpretation of paleodistributions and how these are scored. The present results highlight the need and challenges of incorporating fossils into joint inferences of phylogeny and biogeography to improve the reliability of ancestral geographic range estimation.

The complete chloroplast genome sequence of Psittacanthus schiedeanus (Cham. & Schltdl.) G.Don. (Santalales: Loranthaceae), the first plastome of a mistletoe species in the Psittacantheae tribe.

Psittacanthus schiedeanus (Cham. & Schltdl.) G.Don., 1834, is a mistletoe species in the Loranthaceae, characteristic of the canopy in cloud forest edges and widely distributed in northern Mesoamerica. Here, we report the complete chloroplast genome sequence of P. schiedeanus, the first for a species in the Psittacantheae tribe. The circularized quadripartite structure of the P. schiedeanus chloroplast genome was 122,586 bp in length and included a large single-copy region of 72,507 bp and two inverted repeats of 21,283 bp separated by a small single-copy region of 7,513 bp. The genome contained 112 genes, of which 96 are unique, including 65 protein-coding genes, 27 transfer RNA, and four ribosomal RNA. The overall GC content in the plastome of P. schiedeanus is 36.9%. Based on 43 published complete chloroplast genome sequences for species in the families Loranthaceae and Santalaceae (Santalales), the maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree with high-support bootstrap values indicated that P. schiedeanus in the Psittacantheae tribe is sister to the tribe Lorantheae. The chloroplast genome provided in this study represents a valuable resource for genetic, phylogenetic and conservation studies of Psittacanthus species, and an important advance for unraveling the evolutionary history of these hemiparasitic plants.

How diverse are the mountain karst forests of Mexico?

Tropical forests on karstic relief (tropical karst forest) are among the most species-rich biomes. These forests play pivotal roles as global climate regulators and for human wellbeing. Their long-term conservation could be central to global climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, karst landscapes occupy 20% of the total land surface and are distributed mainly in the southeast of the country, along the eastern slope, and in the Yucatan Peninsula. Within each of these areas, the following types of karst occur: coastal karst, plain karst, hill karst, and mountain karst (low, medium, high). Mountain karst cover 2.07% of Mexico's land surface and are covered by tropical rainforests, montane cloud forests, and tropical deciduous forests. These are probably one of the most diverse biomes in Mexico. However, the mountain karst forests of Mexico have received little attention, and very little is known about their diversity. Here, we evaluated the vascular plant species richness within the mountain karst forests of Mexico. We assembled the first, largest, and most comprehensive datasets of Mexican mountain karst forest species, from different public databases (CONABIO, GBIF, IBdata-UNAM), which included a critical review of all data. We compiled a list of the families, genera, and species present within the mountain karst forests of Mexico. Taxa that best characterize these forests were identified based on their spatial correlation with this biome. We explored biodiversity patterns, identifying areas with the highest species richness, endemism centers, and areas of relatively low sampling intensity. We found that within the mountain karst forests of Mexico there are representatives of 11,771 vascular plant species (253 families and 2,254 genera), ca. 50% of the Mexican flora. We identified 372 species endemic to these forests. According to preliminary IUCN red list criteria, 2,477 species are under some category of conservation risk, of which 456 (3.8%) are endangered. Most of the Mexican mountain karst forests have been extensively explored and six allopatric, species-rich areas were identified. Compared to other regions in the world, the mountain karst forests of Mexico are one of the most diverse biomes. They contain more species than some entire montane systems in Mexico such as Sierra Madre Oriental, and Sierra Madre del Sur. Also, the mountain karst forests of Mexico are most diverse than similar forests of South America and Asia, even if considering the effect of different sampling areas. The fact that mountain karst forests are embedded in areas of high biotic diversity, probably contributes to their great floristic diversity. Thus, the mountain karst forests of Mexico are an important source of diversity and shelters a large percentage of the Mexican flora.

Distribution and morphological variation of tree ferns (Cyatheaceae) along an elevation gradient.

Knowing how species and communities respond to environmental change is fundamental in the context of climate change. The search for patterns of abundance and phenotypic variation along altitudinal gradients can provide evidence on adaptive limits. We evaluated the species abundance and the variation in morphometric and stomatal characters in five tree ferns species (Cyathea fulva, C. divergens, C. myosuroides, Alsophila firma and Gymnosphaera salvinii) distributed along an elevation gradient in a well-preserved Mexican cloud forest. Variation at the community and species level was assessed using exploratory and multivariate data analysis methods. We wanted to explore if the species abundance is environmentally determined, to determine the degree of variation along the elevation gradient, to test for differences between zones and associations with elevation, humidity and soil nutrients, and to assess contribution of the intra- and interspecific variation to the community response to elevation and soil nutrients. The studied fern community showed strong species turnover along the elevation gradient, with some influence of soil nutrient concentration, supporting environmental determinism. All measured characters displayed variation along the gradient. Stomatal characters (size and density) had significantly less variation than morphometric characters (trunk diameter, stipe length and blade length), but stomatal density also shows interesting intraspecific patterns. In general, patterns within the fern community suggest a strong influence of species identity, especially of species inhabiting the lower edge of the cloud forest, which showed the clearest morphometric and stomatal patterns, associated to contrasting environments rather than to changes in elevation. The coincidence between morphometric and stomatal patterns in this area suggest hydraulic adjustments in response to contrasting environments. Our results provide evidence that tree ferns species respond to environmental changes through adjustments of morphometric plasticity and stomatal density, which is relevant to predict possible responses to variation in environmental conditions resulting from climate change.

No phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) boundary.

The Cretaceous-Palaeogene mass extinction event (K-Pg) witnessed upwards of 75% of animal species going extinct, most notably among these are the non-avian dinosaurs. A major question in macroevolution is whether this extinction event influenced the rise of flowering plants (angiosperms). The fossil record suggests that the K-Pg event had a strong regional impact on angiosperms with up to 75% species extinctions, but only had a minor impact on the extinction rates of major lineages (families and orders). Phylogenetic evidence for angiosperm extinction dynamics through time remains unexplored. By analysing two angiosperm mega-phylogenies containing approximately 32 000-73 000 extant species, here we show relatively constant extinction rates throughout geological time and no evidence for a mass extinction at the K-Pg boundary. Despite high species-level extinction observed in the fossil record, our results support the macroevolutionary resilience of angiosperms to the K-Pg mass extinction event via survival of higher lineages.

Assessing digital accessible botanical knowledge and priorities for exploration and discovery of plant diversity across Mesoamerica.

Digital accessible biodiversity knowledge has the potential to greatly advance botanical research and guide conservation efforts. Evaluating its shortfalls is key to understanding its limits and prioritising regions in need of renewed survey efforts. We used the Royal Botanical Gardens Kew's World Checklist of Vascular Plants to parse publicly available occurrence data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and quantify the spatial distribution of spatial, phylogenetic, and temporal data shortfalls across Mesoamerica. After processing 3578 777 occurrence records for 32 522 species of vascular plants across Mesoamerica, we found evidence of poor data coverage: incomplete characterisation of species diversity, old occurrence records, and low phylogenetic representation. One-third of the region showed large gaps for at least one of these dimensions (hotspots) and < 15% had adequate data coverage across dimensions. Overall, the shortfalls we identified compromise the quality of digitally available occurrence data and hamper research on spatial phylogenetics and species dynamics under anthropogenic disturbances. Our analyses identified areas of opportunity for increased efforts in data digitisation, botanical exploration, sequencing, and biodiversity monitoring. These efforts would serve to increase and rejuvenate knowledge on the geographic distribution of vascular plants in Mesoamerica.

Sampling effect in predicting the evolutionary response of populations to climate change.

Genomic data and machine learning approaches have gained interest due to their potential to identify adaptive genetic variation across populations and to assess species vulnerability to climate change. By identifying gene-environment associations for putatively adaptive loci, these approaches project changes to adaptive genetic composition as a function of future climate change (genetic offsets), which are interpreted as measuring the future maladaptation of populations due to climate change. In principle, higher genetic offsets relate to increased population vulnerability and therefore can be used to set priorities for conservation and management. However, it is not clear how sensitive these metrics are to the intensity of population and individual sampling. Here, we use five genomic datasets with varying numbers of SNPs (NSNPs = 7006-1,398,773), sampled populations (Npop = 23-47) and individuals (Nind = 185-595) to evaluate the estimation sensitivity of genetic offsets to varying degrees of sampling intensity. We found that genetic offsets are sensitive to the number of populations being sampled, especially with less than 10 populations and when genetic structure is high. We also found that the number of individuals sampled per population had small effects on the estimation of genetic offsets, with more robust results when five or more individuals are sampled. Finally, uncertainty associated with the use of different future climate scenarios slightly increased estimation uncertainty in the genetic offsets. Our results suggest that sampling efforts should focus on increasing the number of populations, rather than the number of individuals per populations, and that multiple future climate scenarios should be evaluated to ascertain estimation sensitivity.

Integrating Fossil Flowers into the Angiosperm Phylogeny Using Molecular and Morphological Evidence.

Fossils are essential to infer past evolutionary processes. The assignment of fossils to extant clades has traditionally relied on morphological similarity and on apomorphies shared with extant taxa. The use of explicit phylogenetic analyses to establish fossil affinities has so far remained limited. In this study, we built a comprehensive framework to investigate the phylogenetic placement of 24 exceptionally preserved fossil flowers. For this, we assembled a new species-level data set of 30 floral traits for 1201 extant species that were sampled to capture the stem and crown nodes of all angiosperm families. We explored multiple analytical approaches to integrate the fossils into the phylogeny, including different phylogenetic estimation methods, topological-constrained analyses, and combining molecular and morphological data of extant and fossil species. Our results were widely consistent across approaches and showed minor differences in the support of fossils at different phylogenetic positions. The placement of some fossils agrees with previously suggested relationships, but for others, a new placement is inferred. We also identified fossils that are well supported within particular extant families, whereas others showed high phylogenetic uncertainty. Finally, we present recommendations for future analyses combining molecular and morphological evidence, regarding the selection of fossils and appropriate methodologies, and provide some perspectives on how to integrate fossils into the investigation of divergence times and the temporal evolution of morphological traits. [Angiosperms; fossil flowers; phylogenetic uncertainty; RoguePlots.].

Evaluation of animal and plant diversity suggests Greenland's thaw hastens the biodiversity crisis.

Rising temperatures can lead to the occurrence of a large-scale climatic event, such as the melting of Greenland ice sheet, weakening the AMOC and further increasing dissimilarities between current and future climate. The impacts of such an event are still poorly assessed. Here, we evaluate those impacts across megadiverse countries on 21,146 species of tetrapods and vascular plants using the pessimistic climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) and four different scenarios of Greenland's ice sheet melting. We show that RCP 8.5 emission scenario would lead to a widespread reduction in species' geographic ranges (28-48%), which is projected to be magnified (58-99%) with any added contribution from the melting of Greenland. Also, declines in the potential geographical extent of species hotspots (12-89%) and alterations of species composition (19-91%) will be intensified. These results imply that the influence of a strong and rapid Greenland ice sheet melting, resulting in a large AMOC weakening, can lead to a faster collapse of biodiversity across the globe.

An open and continuously updated fern tree of life.

Ferns, with about 12,000 species, are the second most diverse lineage of vascular plants after angiosperms. They have been the subject of numerous molecular phylogenetic studies, resulting in the publication of trees for every major clade and DNA sequences from nearly half of all species. Global fern phylogenies have been published periodically, but as molecular systematics research continues at a rapid pace, these become quickly outdated. Here, we develop a mostly automated, reproducible, open pipeline to generate a continuously updated fern tree of life (FTOL) from DNA sequence data available in GenBank. Our tailored sampling strategy combines whole plastomes (few taxa, many loci) with commonly sequenced plastid regions (many taxa, few loci) to obtain a global, species-level fern phylogeny with high resolution along the backbone and maximal sampling across the tips. We use a curated reference taxonomy to resolve synonyms in general compliance with the community-driven Pteridophyte Phylogeny Group I classification. The current FTOL includes 5,582 species, an increase of ca. 40% relative to the most recently published global fern phylogeny. Using an updated and expanded list of 51 fern fossil constraints, we find estimated ages for most families and deeper clades to be considerably older than earlier studies. FTOL and its accompanying datasets, including the fossil list and taxonomic database, will be updated on a regular basis and are available via a web portal (https://fernphy.github.io) and R packages, enabling immediate access to the most up-to-date, comprehensively sampled fern phylogeny. FTOL will be useful for anyone studying this important group of plants over a wide range of taxonomic scales, from smaller clades to the entire tree. We anticipate FTOL will be particularly relevant for macroecological studies at regional to global scales and will inform future taxonomic systems with the most recent hypothesis of fern phylogeny.

Diversity of an uncommon elastic hypersaline microbial mat along a small-scale transect.

We evaluated the microbial diversity and metabolome profile of an uncommon hypersaline elastic microbial mat from Cuatro Ciénegas Basin (CCB) in the Chihuahuan Desert of Coahuila, México. We collected ten samples on a small scale transect (1.5-m) and described its microbial diversity through NGS-based ITS and 16S rDNA gene sequencing. A very low number of taxa comprised a considerable proportion of the mat and were shared across all sampling points, whereas the rare biosphere was more phylogenetically diverse (Faith's Phylogenetic Diversity (FPD) index) and phylogenetically disperse (using a null model distribution of Phylogenetic Species Clustering (nmdPSC)) than the abundant (high read count) taxa for both analyzed libraries. We also found a distinctive metabolome profile for each sample and were able to tentatively annotate several classes of compounds with relevant biological properties.

Transcriptional Basis for Haustorium Formation and Host Establishment in Hemiparasitic Psittacanthus schiedeanus Mistletoes.

The mistletoe Psittacanthus schiedeanus, a keystone species in interaction networks between plants, pollinators, and seed dispersers, infects a wide range of native and non-native tree species of commercial interest. Here, using RNA-seq methodology we assembled the whole circularized quadripartite structure of P. schiedeanus chloroplast genome and described changes in the gene expression of the nuclear genomes across time of experimentally inoculated seeds. Of the 140,467 assembled and annotated uniGenes, 2,000 were identified as differentially expressed (DEGs) and were classified in six distinct clusters according to their expression profiles. DEGs were also classified in enriched functional categories related to synthesis, signaling, homoeostasis, and response to auxin and jasmonic acid. Since many orthologs are involved in lateral or adventitious root formation in other plant species, we propose that in P. schiedeanus (and perhaps in other rootless mistletoe species), these genes participate in haustorium formation by complex regulatory networks here described. Lastly, and according to the structural similarities of P. schiedeanus enzymes with those that are involved in host cell wall degradation in fungi, we suggest that a similar enzymatic arsenal is secreted extracellularly and used by mistletoes species to easily parasitize and break through tissues of the host.

What is the age of flowering plants?

The origin of flowering plants (angiosperms) was one of the most transformative events in the history of our planet. Despite considerable interest from multiple research fields, numerous questions remain, including the age of the group as a whole. Recent studies have reported a perplexing range of estimates for the crown-group age of angiosperms, from ~140 million years (Ma; Early Cretaceous) to 270 Ma (Permian). Both ends of the spectrum are now supported by both macroevolutionary analyses of the fossil record and fossil-calibrated molecular dating analyses. Here, we first clarify and distinguish among the three ages of angiosperms: the age of their divergence with acrogymnosperms (stem age); the age(s) of emergence of their unique, distinctive features including flowers (morphological age); and the age of the most recent common ancestor of all their living species (crown age). We then demonstrate, based on recent studies, that fossil-calibrated molecular dating estimates of the crown-group age of angiosperms have little to do with either the amount of molecular data or the number of internal fossil calibrations included. Instead, we argue that this age is almost entirely conditioned by its own prior distribution (typically a calibration density set by the user in Bayesian analyses). Lastly, we discuss which future discoveries or novel types of analyses are most likely to bring more definitive answers. In the meantime, we propose that the age of angiosperms is best described as largely unknown (140-270 Ma) and that contrasting age estimates in the literature mostly reflect conflicting prior distributions. We also suggest that future work that depends on the time scale of flowering plant diversification be designed to integrate over this vexing uncertainty.

A global phylogenetic regionalization of vascular plants reveals a deep split between Gondwanan and Laurasian biotas.

Existing global regionalization schemes for plants consider the compositional affinities among biotas, but these have not explicitly considered phylogenetic information. Here, we present for the first time, a phytogeographical delineation of the global vascular flora based on species-level evolutionary relationships. We analysed 8737 820 geographical occurrence records for vascular plants together with a time-calibrated phylogeny including 67 269 species. We constructed a global phylogenetic regionalization by estimating species composition and phylogenetic beta diversity among 200 km × 200 km grid cells across the world. We identified de novo 16 phytogeographical units that are deeply split into two clusters: Laurasian and Gondwanan. Our regionalization broadly matches previous schemes, but also highlights the separation of the Gondwanan biota into an Holotropical cluster and an Australian-Neozealandic-Patagonian cluster. In contrast, no clear split among Laurasian and Gondwanan biotas was retrieved when omitting phylogenetic information. The integration of phylogenetic and geographical information provides new insights into the delineation of phytogeographical areas and their historical relationships, enabling the identification of three large, clearly differentiated biotas, here referred to as kingdoms: Holarctic, Holotropical, and Austral. Our results provide further evidence for delineating transition zones and show a clear latitudinal pattern of increasing evolutionary distinctiveness towards the poles.

The evolutionary genomics of species' responses to climate change.

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity. One way that this threat manifests is through pronounced shifts in the geographical range of species over time. To predict these shifts, researchers have primarily used species distribution models. However, these models are based on assumptions of niche conservatism and do not consider evolutionary processes, potentially limiting their accuracy and value. To incorporate evolution into the prediction of species' responses to climate change, researchers have turned to landscape genomic data and examined information about local genetic adaptation using climate models. Although this is an important advancement, this approach currently does not include other evolutionary processes-such as gene flow, population dispersal and genomic load-that are critical for predicting the fate of species across the landscape. Here, we briefly review the current practices for the use of species distribution models and for incorporating local adaptation. We next discuss the rationale and theory for considering additional processes, reviewing how they can be incorporated into studies of species' responses to climate change. We summarize with a conceptual framework of how manifold layers of information can be combined to predict the potential response of specific populations to climate change. We illustrate all of the topics using an exemplar dataset and provide the source code as potential tutorials. This Perspective is intended to be a step towards a more comprehensive integration of population genomics with climate change science.

Host phylogeny and host ecology structure the mammalian gut microbiota at different taxonomic scales.

The gut microbiota is critical for host function. Among mammals, host phylogenetic relatedness and diet are strong drivers of gut microbiota structure, but one factor may be more influential than the other. Here, we used 16S rRNA gene sequencing to determine the relative contributions of host phylogeny and host diet in structuring the gut microbiotas of 11 herbivore species from 5 families living sympatrically in southwest Kenya. Herbivore species were classified as grazers, browsers, or mixed-feeders and dietary data (% C4 grasses in diet) were compiled from previously published sources. We found that herbivore gut microbiotas were highly species-specific, and that host taxonomy accounted for more variation in the gut microbiota (30%) than did host dietary guild (10%) or sample month (8%). Overall, similarity in the gut microbiota increased with host phylogenetic relatedness (r = 0.74) across the 11 species of herbivores, but among 7 closely related Bovid species, dietary %C4 grass values more strongly predicted gut microbiota structure (r = 0.64). Additionally, within bovids, host dietary guild explained more of the variation in the gut microbiota (17%) than did host species (12%). Lastly, while we found that the gut microbiotas of herbivores residing in southwest Kenya converge with those of distinct populations of conspecifics from central Kenya, fine-scale differences in the abundances of bacterial amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) between individuals from the two regions were also observed. Overall, our findings suggest that host phylogeny and taxonomy strongly structure the gut microbiota across broad host taxonomic scales, but these gut microbiotas can be further modified by host ecology (i.e., diet, geography), especially among closely related host species.

Phylogeography and Genetic Diversity in a Southern North American Desert: Agave kerchovei From the Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, Mexico.

The Tehuacán-Cuicatlán Valley, located at the southeast of the state of Puebla and the northeast of the state of Oaxaca in Central Mexico, south of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), is of particular interest for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of arid and semi-arid environments, being one of the main reservoirs of biological diversity for the arid zones of North America, including the highest diversity of Agavaceae worldwide and high levels of endemism. Studying in detail the phylogeography, environmental history and population genetics of representative species will hopefully shed light on the evolutionary and ecological dynamics that generated the tremendous biodiversity and endemism of this important region in Mexico. We sequenced three non-coding regions of chloroplast genome of Agave kerchovei, a representative species of the Tehuacán Valley, generating 2,188 bp from 128 individuals sampled from eight populations throughout the species range. We used this data set to (i) characterize the levels of genetic diversity and genetic structure in A. kerchovei; (ii) predict the distribution of A. kerchovei for the present day, and to reconstruct the past geographical history of the species by constructing ecological niche models (ENM); and (iii) compare the levels of diversity in this species with those estimated for the widely distributed Agave lechuguilla. Agave kerchovei has high levels of total chloroplast genetic variation (Hd = 0.718), especially considering that it is a species with a very restricted distribution. However, intrapopulation diversity is low (zero in some populations), and genetic structure is high (F ST = 0.928, G ST = 0.824), which can be expected for endemic species with isolated populations. Our data suggest that Pleistocene glacial cycles have played an important role in the distribution of A. kerchovei, where the climatic variability of the region - likely associated with its topographic complexity - had a significant effect on the levels of genetic diversity and population dynamics, while the potential distribution of the species seems to be stable since the middle Holocene (6 kya). We conclude that in A. kerchovei there is a core group of populations in the Tehuacán Valley, and peripheric populations that appear to be evolving independently and thus the species is fundamentally an endemic species from the Tehuacán Valley while the populations outside the Valley appear to be in the process of incipient speciation.

The delayed and geographically heterogeneous diversification of flowering plant families.

The Early Cretaceous (145-100 million years ago (Ma)) witnessed the rise of flowering plants (angiosperms), which ultimately lead to profound changes in terrestrial plant communities. However, palaeobotanical evidence shows that the transition to widespread angiosperm-dominated biomes was delayed until the Palaeocene (66-56 Ma). Important aspects of the timing and geographical setting of angiosperm diversification during this period, and the groups involved, remain uncertain. Here we address these aspects by constructing and dating a new and complete family-level phylogeny, which we integrate with 16 million geographic occurrence records for angiosperms on a global scale. We show substantial time lags (mean, 37-56 Myr) between the origin of families (stem age) and the diversification leading to extant species (crown ages) across the entire angiosperm tree of life. In turn, our results show that families with the shortest lags are overrepresented in temperate and arid biomes compared with tropical biomes. Our results imply that the diversification and ecological expansion of extant angiosperms was geographically heterogeneous and occurred long after most of their phylogenetic diversity originated during the Cretaceous Terrestrial Revolution.

Morphological variation of leaf traits in the Ternstroemia lineata species complex (Ericales: Penthaphylacaceae) in response to geographic and climatic variation.

Variation in leaf morphology is correlated with environmental variables, such as precipitation, temperature and soil composition. Several studies have pointed out that individual plasticity can largely explain the foliar phenotypic differences observed in populations due to climatic change and have suggested that the environment plays an important role in the evolution of plant species by selecting for phenotypic variation. Thus, the study of foliar morphology in plant populations can help us identify the environmental factors that have potentially influenced the process of species diversification. In this study, we analyzed morphological variation in the leaf traits of the Ternstroemia lineata species complex (Penthaphylacaceae) and its relation to climatic variables across the species distribution area to identify the patterns of morphological differentiation within this species complex. Based on the collected leaves of 270 individuals from 32 populations, we analyzed nine foliar traits using spatial interpolation models and multivariate statistics. A principal component analysis identified three main morphological traits (leaf length and two leaf shape variables) that were used to generate interpolated surface maps to detect discrete areas delimited by zones of rapid change in the values of the morphological traits. We identified a mosaic coarse-grain pattern of geographical distribution in the variation of foliar traits. According to the interpolation maps, we could define nine morphological groups and their geographic distributions. Longer leaves, spatulate leaves and the largest foliar area were located in sites with lower precipitation and higher seasonality of precipitation following a northwest-southeast direction and following significant latitudinal and longitudinal gradients. According to the phenogram of the relationships of the nine morphological groups based on morphological similarity, the putative species and subspecies of the T. lineata species complex did not show a clear pattern of differentiation. In this study, we found a complex pattern of differentiation with some isolated populations and some other contiguous populations differentiated by different traits. Further genetic and systematic studies are needed to clarify the evolutionary relationships in this species complex.

Climate change is predicted to disrupt patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize.

Climate change is one of the most important threats to biodiversity and crop sustainability. The impact of climate change is often evaluated on the basis of expected changes in species' geographical distributions. Genomic diversity, local adaptation, and migration are seldom integrated into future species projections. Here, we examine how climate change will impact populations of two wild relatives of maize, the teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana and Z. mays ssp. parviglumis. Despite high levels of genetic diversity within populations and widespread future habitat suitability, we predict that climate change will alter patterns of local adaptation and decrease migration probabilities in more than two-thirds of present-day teosinte populations. These alterations are geographically heterogeneous and suggest that the possible impacts of climate change will vary considerably among populations. The population-specific effects of climate change are also evident in maize landraces, suggesting that climate change may result in maize landraces becoming maladapted to the climates in which they are currently cultivated. The predicted alterations to habitat distribution, migration potential, and patterns of local adaptation in wild and cultivated maize raise a red flag for the future of populations. The heterogeneous nature of predicted populations' responses underscores that the selective impact of climate change may vary among populations and that this is affected by different processes, including past adaptation.